Introduction

Demographic projections describing Africa’s population growth indicate a potential urban ‘youth bulge’ presenting both challenges and opportunities. The emergent challenges and opportunities could realistically reshape Africa’s 21^st Century. Rapid urbanization, combined with a burgeoning youth population, is already redefining how political, economic, and social development intersect. As seen across the continent, demographic shifts without appropriate responsive governance can be a recipe for chaos. On the other hand, it possesses inherent opportunities awaiting to be harnessed to position Africa as a frontier market. Whether this imminent urban ‘youth bulge’ catalyzes the continent’s transformation or drives the growing precarity depends on how the various sectors of society converge to unlock their full potential.

A Human Capital Development Challenge

Investment in human capital development involving education, health, and infrastructure is fundamental to driving sustainable development in Africa. For instance, The World Bank Africa Human Capital Plan focused on scaling up financing for human capital development projects, prioritizing: (1) education (2) health, nutrition, and population, and (3) social protection and jobs in 2022. Despite these efforts and several others in Africa, some 50 million children remain out of school while most of those who attend face considerable challenges in acquiring the basic skills for success. This figure, according to UNESCO, already places Sub-Saharan Africa at a critical point with an increasing knowledge gap positioning the region among the lowest brackets globally in terms of knowledge and skills acquisition.

Meanwhile, significant milestones have been achieved in reducing infant and child mortality while child malnutrition across the continent has been declining. According to The World Economic Forum, access to basic healthcare, improvements in nutrition, and access to clean drinking water have contributed to these improvements. While these improvements, coupled with general stability in fertility rates on the continent relative to other regions bodes well for the future of Africa’s productive workforce, the demographic expansion is not being met with disciplined foresight towards the expansion of access to education, health, and public infrastructure beyond the urban enclaves.

The drive towards unchecked urbanization is directly related to rural deprivation and the inequity in development outcomes between the urban and rural regions. A general misconception of inter-continental irregular migration obscures the realities of internal migration and lends itself to the lack of focus on rural-urban mobility in Africa. As the continent’s demographic trend shows, the increase in population is already driving the growth of the urban population. The African Development Bank has noted that the proliferation of unplanned housing, poor delivery of essential services, and poverty and insecurity are areas of most notable concern.  

The International Labour Organization paints a rather empirical picture of the nexus between population growth and urbanization stressing how the former is driving informality in the latter in terms of both infrastructure and employment.  These challenges are evident in a new class of urban precariat with transformative powers in Africa’s political and economic environments.

Africa’s Urban Precariat: A New Dangerous Class?

Critics warn about conceptualizing Africa’s youth bulge as lying at the precipice of anarchy. Wangui Kimari writes in the New Internationalist, that Africa’s youth need to reject such presumptions. She notes that such conceptualizations are fueled by Eurocentric narratives that favorably capture similar demographic phenomena in the West while presenting that of Africa in much darker terms. According to Kimari, the bulge discourse is also gendered as it “attacks African women for the very African folly of being too fertile”.

Beyond the cultural conceptualization, however, universal economic underpinnings are generating the bulge discourse across the globe. Africa seems to be at the receiving end of the most critical analysis because its population projections far outstrip other regions. As most demographic data have indicated, rapid urbanization in Sub-Saharan Africa is informed largely by these demographic changes but are not accompanied by the massive structural improvements that can forestall the ongoing precariousness.

To draw on Guy Standing’s thinking about the precariat, and positioning it contextually within Africa, there is a clear picture of how Africa’s youth bulge could either spark a continental transformation or emerge as a counterpoint to the oncoming economic and political revolutions. Indeed, as Standing argues, this mass is characterized by labour instabilities, lack of identity, and erosion of rights present within the current system.

The question here is whether or not Standing’s original categorizations which promise new forms of representation and redistribution where the new class is re-engaging in democratic politics apply to Africa. The relentless decline in support for democracy on the continent is well-established. But in the decline, well-intended aspirations for a progressive society are driven by the continent’s urban youth population regardless of the type of political architecture.

Towards a Frontier Market

Despite the negativity surrounding the urban youth bulge and its possibility of generating a new class of precariat, it also has an inherent potential to catalyze Africa’s growth and propel its development. However, there is an exigent need for strategic political leadership, and from emerging trends, this new demography prefers pragmatic political structures that advance collective well-being to the strict adherence to market-based systems.

Africa represents a frontier market whether it positions itself as a consumer or a productive continent. Its demographic characteristics and urban socio-economic dynamics position it as an emerging environment for growing precariousness. The next few decades could radically redefine the continent due to socio-economic factors driving down fertility rates. And with a decline in fertility and an increase in life expectancy, the continent could very well be a scene of mass poverty and inequality. 

Fortunately, this can be averted with significant investments in education, healthcare provision, infrastructure development, and social protection. To overturn the existing poor outcomes and ensure that the urban youth bulge catalyzes continental growth rather than becoming the center of Africa’s conflicts, linkages between the bedrocks of the continent’s economy have to exist. Thus, the agricultural, extractive, manufacturing, and service industries must be strategically connected to provide stable jobs, enhance purchasing power, drive innovation, and improve social mobility. 

image: Population Connection, "The World Is Becoming More African" (2023): https://populationconnection.org/blog/re-the-world-is-becoming-more-african/